That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...

Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new ...

As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House ...

Get details of total seats, state-by-state electoral votes, and key battleground states. Learn how the Electoral College ...

And, while most pollsters had predicted a narrowing margin between Harris and Trump in the popular vote, almost all showed ...

The map was created before Election Day 2024 as a prediction of how women might vote.

Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled ...

Election modeling has become a serious racket ever since Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight but now working ...

“Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” ...

For much of the 2024 US presidential campaign, polls and pundits rated the race too close to call ... But pollster Nate ...

Trump not only won in the Electoral College, but he won so big that he expanded his coalition with historic demographic ...