Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...

The former president fell below a 40 percent chance of winning the election in the latest update to FiveThirtyEight's ...

Last week's debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump produced fewer policy specifics ...

"what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.

The Euro (EUR) traded in mixed territory against the majority of its peers on Monday,... STORY LINK Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: GBP/EUR's Future Uncertain Among Analysts RBC Capital Markets ...

the upper 40s. North winds up to 5 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 60s. North winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Colder. Mostly clear ...

The new program also revised the budget deficit forecast for next year to 3.1% of GDP, down from the previous 3.4%. For this year, it envisions a deficit of 4.9%. The vice president recently hinted ...

As far as snowfall, the Farmer’s Almanac forecast for the Northeast is “stormy with above-normal amounts of winter precipitation and near-to above-normal temperatures. Snow will be most ...

Even as Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy teetered and polls showed him clearly losing to Donald Trump, the election forecasting site 538 was still ... like forecasts, to political problems.

Just as I find polling to be often misunderstood, election forecasting is even more complicated, making it even more likely that the results of a forecast will be badly misinterpreted. There are ...

In a nutshell what we're doing is running two separate versions of the 538 forecast, each producing 10,000 simulations of each party's vote share in each state. Then, we use the math explained in ...

The weights correspond to the (un)certainty we have about each forecast in isolation. We accomplish this averaging by using something called Bayesian model stacking. In a nutshell what we're doing is ...