A property, located at Oakley Close in the M40 postcode area, has new owners. The terraced house, in Miles Platting & Newton ...

In this scenario, Trump wins 36 out of 100 times. In simplified terms, the regressions start off by looking at the vote share for each candidate in every simulation and seeing how the rest of the map ...

Swift’s fans largely lean Democratic, but her support could boost engagement. The Oprah Effect. The Colbert Bump. The Swift Surge? On Tuesday night, soon after the presidential debate between ...

It was a good night for the democrats. At least according to the betting odds for the 2024 election as Vice President Kamala Harris pulled ahead from former President Donald Trump early Wednesday ...

Donald Trump’s campaign manager used a Semafor report on issues with ABC News’ 538 election model to take a shot at the entire prediction effort, labeling it “a suppression tool” and ...

Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidential election forecast model. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the ...

How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so we'd like to share with you some tips we've learned over the years on ...

Democrats have leaned into themes of "joy" and "freedom" this week. Welcome to 538's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. tia.yang (Tia Yang, senior editor): This week ...

538's national presidential polling average is doing similar math when combining polls with different response options, so we can extract an estimated effect from the aggregation model as a first ...