The former president fell below a 40 percent chance of winning the election in the latest update to FiveThirtyEight's ...

"what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.

Top polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has rereleased its election forecast model for 2024 on Friday, giving Vice President Kamala Harris a 58 percent chance of victory in November ...

North Carolina is the closest race in the November election, according to election website FiveThirtyEight's forecast model ...

The data doesn’t support the obsession with presidential prognostications that estimate the probability of winning an ...

Finally, we blend those adjusted simulations with any of the original simulations that still apply to produce a final forecast. *Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the winner of the ...

With a debate and a second assassination attempt in the rearview mirror, the Harris-Trump contest is by any measure too close ...

Similar models correctly predicted the 2020 presidential election and 2021 runoff elections for two Georgia senate seats.

Nate Silver gives the former president the advantage to win the Electoral College based on data from recent polls.

Even as Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy teetered and polls showed him clearly losing to Donald Trump, the election forecasting site 538 was still ... like forecasts, to political problems.