Natural gas futures rebound, but mild U.S. weather and rising supply weigh on prices. Can European LNG demand provide support?

European gas prices jumped to the highest level since October 2023 yesterday as unexpected supply disruptions and colder weather forecasts worsened the supply threats in an already tight market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European natural-gas prices hit a 15-month high, boosted by fast-depleting inventories and concerns over future supplies. The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF gas hub traded 4.2% higher at 53.62 euros a megawatt hour in afternoon trade on Friday, extending the previous days' rally.

Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas but its LNG imports complicate the picture.

U.S. natural gas futures ended the day near flat after bouncing off the key $3 level, but posted steep weekly and monthly losses as rising output and the warming weather outlook kept downward pressure on prices.