Were 2024 Election Polls Wrong? Pollsters Give Verdicts
These may not be the best numbers, but they are below average errors, i.e., as I suggested previously, the average error in the last week's national polls for all presidential elections between 1952 and 2020 is 2.5 points, and it is larger still in the states.
What polls got right and wrong about the 2024 presidential election
Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter electorate will look like. Some of that is due to statistical error. The 2024 presidential election was no different.
Were the polls wrong about Trump again?
Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled off a sweep of the main battleground states over Vice President Harris in the election Tuesday,
Video: Why did many of America’s major polling organizations get the election wrong?
Why did many of America’s major polling organizations get the election wrong? Pollsters Matt Towery and Robert Cahaly discuss why their polling system was more accurate than anybody else the last three election cycles on 'Hannity.
Where the polling of the 2024 election went wrong
Julia Manchester discusses where the 2024 polls, which showed a close race, ended up being far off of the actual election results.
The Polls Were Right! But Also They Weren’t.
But the polls also weren’t that wrong this time. And that counts as a win, right? In fact, some experts say the surveys were ...
Polls predicted a close race. Trump won handily. Pollster says one thing is 'very clear.'
Trump has outperformed polling predictions in the last three elections. Here are one pollster's takeaways from 2024 election ...
Charlamagne tha God surprised by exit polls showing Trump won 33% of voters of color
Radio host Charlamagne tha God appeared surprised on Sunday by exit polls showing President-elect Trump winning 33% of the ...
2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...
Exit polls from the 2024 presidential election
According to early exit polls, Catholic voters supported Trump over Harris by a nearly 20-point margin. In 2020, Catholics ...
2024 voting: Here's when polls close for all 50 states on Election Day
Polls cross the country will remain open until at least the early evening local time as Americans cast their ballots on ...
Why Exit Polls Are Misleading
Exit polls don’t have a very good track record, and they can contribute to misleading narratives on election night.
ABC News on MSN6d
Exit polls 2024: How the gender gap is playing out in key swing states
The gender gap is considered a key factor in the presidential race. Preliminary exit polls results provide some insight into ...
CNN on MSN4d
How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
But just like polls, prediction markets are far from perfect. In 2016, bookmakers told the British public that the smart ...
Early Results Suggest the Polls Were Notably Accurate
Collectively they indicated that the presidential race would be close, and it appears they got it right without significantly ...
Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls
"This is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets," Kalshi's founder said. Betting markets called Trump's win weeks ...